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Economic Overview

The year 2023 has proven to be challenging not only for the fine wine market but also for global financial markets and consumers. The IMF’s projections indicate a slowing world economic growth trajectory, impacted by the lingering effects of the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and conflicts in Israel and Palestine. While inflation is gradually receding from the peaks of 2022, core inflation remains high, leading to multiple interest rate hikes globally.

In the UK, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed a 4.6% rise in the 12 months to October 2023, reflecting a decrease from previous months. However, energy prices, though lower than their peaks, still contribute to the overall higher cost of living.

On a global scale, emerging and developing economies demonstrate more resilience, except for China, where economic growth forecasts for 2023 have been lowered to 5%, primarily due to challenges in the real estate sector.

The overall economic landscape translates into reduced consumer spending power, increased costs, and a slow recovery, likely peaking in 2024. This has a direct impact on the fine wine market, with buyers becoming more cautious and unwilling to spend as much as in previous years.

Fine Wine Market

The fine wine market in 2023 faced continued challenges, contrasting sharply with the two halves of 2022, where rapid growth in the first half gave way to a downturn. Major Liv-ex indices, including the Fine Wine 100, Fine Wine 50, and Fine Wine 1000*, retraced most of the gains from the previous two years, with declines ranging from 13.0% to 13.4% year-to-date.

Comparing 2022, when fine wine outperformed other financial indices, to 2023, a shift is evident. Equities markets like the S&P 500 and gold have rebounded, while fine wine indices exhibit less buoyancy but remain at comparable levels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Despite a unique En Primeur 2022 campaign where release prices were considerably higher than previous years, Bordeaux remains a safe haven for collectors. In contrast, Burgundy’s share declines due to increased risk aversion, impacting prices and trade numbers for newer, less-established brands.

The overall assessment by The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index paints a more optimistic picture of the market and its trends in the past year. It indicates that challenges in the luxury market were primarily influenced by the underperformance of Burgundy and the substantial impact of high inflation. These factors might influence the pricing strategy for next year’s releases, with producers potentially needing to offer discounts to encourage consumers to opt for their products instead of holding cash.

While wearable investments like watches and jewelry showed satisfactory performance, the luxury market exhibited mixed results. Notably, whisky, often compared to wine, faced a decline despite its strong performance over the last decade.

Overview

In the current fine wine market downturn, there’s a noticeable shift toward safer assets like older Bordeaux vintages, reflecting a broader trend favouring quality and established brands. However, brands that surged in 2021/2022, like Domaine Arnoux-Lachaux and Château Lafite, are now seeing significant declines.

Anticipations of upcoming high-yielding vintages raise concerns about the market’s capacity for expensive wines. Campaigns like Burgundy and Bordeaux En Primeur in 2024 become crucial, requiring strategic pricing. The fine wine market is in a familiar standoff observed in bear markets, where buyers resist current prices, sellers hesitate to lower them, and accumulating stock poses challenges. Until there’s an improvement in the macroeconomic landscape and a decline in interest rates, finding a compromise between buyers and sellers remains essential.

The Market Going Forwards

Whilst nobody possesses a crystal ball, gaining insights into the future often involves reflecting on the past. Drawing parallels with history, the closest economic analogy to our current situation lies in the 2008/09 financial crisis. Although the circumstances differ, the end result mirrors an economic downturn. During that period, the price of wine dipped as consumer demand for fine wine waned—an inevitable consequence of basic supply and demand dynamics.

For present-day investors, there’s solace in the fact that the market experienced a highly profitable period from 2009 to 2011. However, the current ongoing price correction has yet to reignite buyer interest, indicating that prices may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. The suspense now hinges on whether the market will rebound in 2024, echoing the recovery witnessed in 2009.

All statistical information is from Liv-Ex

What are the Liv-Ex Indices?

  • The Liv-Ex Fine Wine 100 index is the industry leading benchmark. It represents the price movement of 100 of the most sought-after fine wines.
  • The Liv-Ex Fine Wine 1000 is the broadest index. It represents the price movement of 1000 of the most sought-after fine wines.
  • The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index tracks the price movements of the Bordeaux First Growths. It includes the ten most recent vintages of Lafite Rothschild, Margaux, Mouton Rothschild, Haut Brion and Latour.

 

By Edward Stevens

Edward.Stevens@WaudWines.com

A big release from Pomerol today in the form of Château La Conseillante. It is being offered by the international trade for £2,652 per 12×75, up 40.8% on the 2021’s opening price (£1,884 per 12×75). Although the 40.8% price increase is a lot, this wine still offers fantastic value compared to previous (lower scored) vintages of this wine on the secondary market. This is a testament to how it performs as an investment year on year. We have taken our full allocation here.

Neal Martin (Vinous) gave the wine a barrel score of 97-99 points. He mentions in his tasting note that ‘Marielle Cazaux has crafted one of the most intellectual La Conseillante wines in recent years’.

William Kelley (Wine Advocate) awarded the wine a barrel range of 97-100 points. He said that ‘the 2022 La Conseillante is a remarkable wine that has the potential to emerge as one of the wines of the vintage’. He went on to say ‘congratulations to winemaker Marielle Cazaux, consulting oenologist Thomas Duclos, the Nicolas family led by Jean-Valmy, and all the team at La Conseillante who have firmly established this estate at the very top of Pomerol’s qualitative hierarchy in recent vintages’.

James Suckling agreed that ‘this is sensational’ and commented on its ‘silky, silky, silky. Creamy texture’. He awarded it 98-99 points.

 

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Next up is Vieux Château Certan. It is being offered by the international trade for £3,300 per 12×75, up 20.6% on the 2021s opening price (£2,736 per 12×75). Some older vintages of this wine have started to increase in value more recently according to Liv-Ex data, this could suggest that this could be a wine to hold on to.

 

Neal Martin (Vinous) gave the wine a barrel range of 97-99 points, calling it ‘very expressive this year’. He mentions that ‘while it is a real Left Bank/Right Bank hybrid’ it is ‘quintessentially Pomerol’.

Jane Anson (Inside Bordeaux) awarded the wine a score of 96 points, noting the ‘exuberance of the vintage’ and mentioning that the wine ‘will no doubt increase with age’.

James Suckling gave the wine a barrel range of 98-99 points and noted the wines ‘excellent length’.

 

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The final first growth available to buy en primeur has been released. It is being offered by the international trade for £6,180 per 12×75, a 21.2% increase on the 2021’s opening price (£5,100 a case).

Neal Martin (Vinous) awarded it a barrel range of 96-98 points, praising its medium-bodied palate that is ‘blessed with unerring symmetry’. He noted the 2022 Haut-Brion’s ‘bewitching’ texture and a finish that is ‘almost pixelated’. In his words: ‘magnificent, but not necessarily the best wine that Delmas oversaw in this vintage’.

‘A classic, breath-taking expression of Haut-Brion’, noted Lisa Perrotti-Brown (Wine Independent) who rated it at 97-99+ points. After the first ten years in the bottle, she expects to ‘watch it soar’.

James Suckling scored the wine at 98-99 points, underscoring the ‘fascinating aromas’ of currants and cedar with sandalwood and peaches. He highlights the ‘interesting’ merlot majority in this year’s blend (53.6%), an anomaly for Haut-Brion.

 

Ducru-Beaucaillou was released this week. It is being offered by the international trade for £2,244 per 12×75, up 17.6% on the 2021’s opening price (£1,908 per 12×75). It has been a trend this campaign that prices have been up compared to the 2021 vintage. Ducru-Beaucaillou is a wine that performs well on the secondary market and one that we will be taking our allocation of.

Neal Martin (Vinous) awarded the wine a barrel range of 95-97 points, calling it ‘one of the most dense and muscular’ of the Château’s history. He added that the 2022 Ducru-Beaucaillou ‘threatens to overwhelm the senses’ while still young, noting that the bottle tasting will be particularly important.

William Kelley (Wine Advocate) assigned it a score of 94-96 points, deeming it a ‘punchy, modern Saint-Julien reminiscent of a hypothetical blend of the 2018 and 2020’.

James Suckling gave the wine a barrel range of 97-98 points, calling it ‘full-bodied with powerful tannins, yet fine and layered’.

 

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Château Mouton Rothschild was released this morning. It is being offered by the international trade for £6,216 per 12×75, a 21.9% increase on the 2021’s opening price (£5,100 a case). Another wine that we always take our full allocation of given it’s long history of success on the secondary market.

Neal Martin (Vinous) awarded the wine a barrel range of 96-98, calling it ‘a Mouton-Rothschild determined to make a statement’. He makes note of the ‘powerful, almost burly’ profile, saying it ‘feels a bit like tasting Thor’s hammer at the moment’. He is overall optimistic, though: ‘It is, perhaps, how the 1986 tasted in its youth’.

‘A legend in the making’, writes Lisa Perrotti-Brown (Wine Independent) who scored the wine at 98-100 points. She highlights its ‘explosive, intense’ flavours, adding that ‘it is amazing how classical this Mouton is.

Jane Anson (Inside Bordeaux) gave the wine a score of 98 points, recommending that the wine ‘needs a long time before approaching’, but is a ‘thoroughly enjoyable experience’.

‘In a word: magnificent’, says Antonio Galloni (Vinous) who rated it at a range of 96-98 points.

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Château Léoville-Las-Cases was released yesterday. It is being offered by the international trade for £2,772 per 12×75, a 42.2% increase on 2021’s opening price (£1,950 a case). Leoville Las Cases is often a top performer and received a possible 18 100-point scores (including Neal Martin) making it the best vintage for a long time.

This year’s Las-Cases has garnered immense praise from critics. According to Neal Martin of Vinous, the wine received a score of 98-100 points. In his tasting note, he described it as ‘lavish and audacious’ for a Saint-Julien, surpassing the trio of 2018-2020 vintages and being a ‘tour de force’.

James Suckling awarded the wine a range of 99-100 points. He noted that the tannins were seamlessly integrated, providing fantastic structure, while the texture remained fresh and vivid. Suckling found it to be ‘thought-provoking’ and ‘endless’.

Meanwhile, Jean-Marc Quarin awarded it a perfect 100-points. He commented that it is ‘the meatiest, most precise, deepest and most austere Léoville Las Cases I know’ and added ‘that’s wonderful!’

William Kelley (Wine Advocate) also scored the wine 98-100 points. He said it was ‘one of the wines of the vintage’ and ‘a monument in the making’. That being said, Kelley did caution that ‘it wouldn’t surprise me if it were to shut down after a few years in bottle’ as it ‘was surprisingly open for a young Las Cases’.

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After the surprise release of Lafite on Friday, the second first growth wine of the campaign was released yesterday. Chateau Margaux 2022  is being offered by the international trade for £6,192 per 12×75, a 21.4% increase on the 2021’s opening price (£5,100 a case). It is wine that very often performs favourably on the secondary market and one that we will be taking our full allocation of.

Neal Martin of Vinous bestowed the wine with a barrel range of 96-98 points, characterized as having an ‘almost swaggering’ style. He emphasizes that this year’s Margaux deviates from its usual subtle and nuanced blend, instead presenting itself as a ‘First Growth that is dressed to impress’.

Jane Anson from Inside Bordeaux describes the wine as ‘stunning’ in terms of its density and construction, awarding it a score of 98-100 points. She commends the ‘gorgeous balance’ achieved, despite the unprecedented alcohol levels found in the estate’s Cabernet Sauvignon.

Jeff Leve of Wine Cellar Insider shares the same level of enthusiasm for the 2022 Margaux, rating it within the range of 98-100 points. He praises its ‘silky, sensuous, rich, and almost viscous’ palate.

William Kelley of Wine Advocate, while slightly more reserved, rates the wine at 96-97+ points. He acknowledges that the 2022 vintage is one of the most powerful ever produced at the estate, yet maintains that, at this early stage, everything seems to be in check.

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The next release of this campaign is Château Montrose. It is being offered by the international trade for £1,746 per 12×75, a 28.4% increase on the 2021’s opening price (£1,360 a case). It is a very high scoring vintage and still at a discount to the 2016 vintage as seen below.

Neal Martin (Vinous) awarded the wine a barrel range of 97-99 points, lauding the ‘focused, superb concentration’ in Montrose’s ‘trademark sense of symmetry.’ He notes that ‘this could be the finest Saint- Estèphe in 2022.’

‘Unrolls to show the depth and class of Montrose,’ writes Jane Anson (Inside Bordeaux) who scored it 97 points. She goes on to praise the ‘intensity’ and ‘depth of expression,’ praising its ability to have ‘density without shouting.’

Lisa Perrotti-Brown (Wine Independent) gave it a range of 98-100 points. She highlights the ‘vibrant and shimmery’ finish alongside the palate, which she describes as ‘a firework display’ of flavour.

William Kelley (Wine Advocate) echoed the enthusiasm for the 2022 Montrose, scoring the wine 99-100 points. In his words: ‘such a compelling wine that assigning it a bracketed score seems a mere formality.’

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The first of the four first growths was released this morning in the shape of Château Lafite Rothschild 2022. It is being offered by the international trade for £7,140 per 12×75, a 23.1% increase on the 2021’s opening price (£5,800 a case). Even with the increase in price on 2021 (as has been the norm for the 2022 vintage), the price still compares favourably with 2018 and 2016.  This is one of those wines that performs well year on year and we have taken are full allocation as usual.

Neal Martin (Vinous) scored the wine 96-98 points and said ‘perpetually the most deceptive of First Growth, one should not doubt its long-term potential’.

Several critics were quick to compare 2022 to Lafite’s greatest vintages. James Suckling awarded the wine a barrel range of 99-100, celebrating this vintage’s similarity to 1986 and its ‘purity and precision.’ In his words: ‘It’s really about being Lafite here.’ Similarly, Lisa Perrotti-Brown scored this vintage 98-100, calling it an ‘intellectual triumph’ that is ‘classic great Lafite.’

William Kelley (Wine Advocate) gave Lafite a barrel range of 95-97+, deeming it the ‘most tensile of the first growths this year.’

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